The war in Ukraine has, for the first time since World War II, exposed the fragility of Europe’s defense and security system globally, particularly against strategic threats posed by Russia from the east. Europeans now face a situation where, without the U.S. security umbrella, the risk of territorial invasion has become a tangible concern.
Since the establishment of the European Common Market in the 1950s and the subsequent formation of the European Union in the 1990s, the vision of a unified European security, political, and economic framework has sparked debate both within and beyond the continent. Post-World War II efforts to unify Europe stemmed from the need for historic rivals Germany and France to transcend their enmity through genuine cooperation. Their reconciliation laid the foundation for the European project, positioning Europe as a nascent global power.
Following the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, Europe established a robust economic and political system. Hopes emerged that this integration would foster deeper institutional cohesion, extending even to security and defense. Despite late-1990s discussions on creating a unified European army, no concrete progress materialized over the next two decades.
During this period, NATO assumed primary responsibility for Europe’s defense, promoting Western democratic values alongside its military role. After the Soviet Union’s collapse, EU and NATO expansion into Eastern Europe proceeded in parallel, drawing these nations under the U.S.-led security umbrella.
Europe’s failure to develop an independent defense system stemmed from fragmented efforts among member states and a lack of U.S. support. France championed the idea of a unified European army, but Germany and the UK remained skeptical, with Germany prioritizing economic strength as a security guarantee. However, Trump’s presidency (2017–2021) and the Ukraine war (2022) profoundly shifted Europe’s strategic outlook.
From the outset, Trump signaled skepticism toward unconditional transatlantic cooperation, demanding increased European defense spending and reciprocity. His rhetoric was matched by actions, such as withdrawing U.S. troops from Germany after nearly seven decades. Trump’s focus on China as the primary threat, rather than Russia, created a strategic vacuum, heightening Europe’s sense of military vulnerability.
In response, Europe allocated substantial budgets for self-reinforcement post-Trump, with Germany and others launching advanced defense programs. Yet achieving self-reliance will take years. The resurgence of Russia and China’s strategic ambitions pose dual threats, compounded by internal European discord over whether to classify Russia as friend, rival, or enemy.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is regarded as Europe’s gravest threat since 1945. With China’s indirect support, Russia aims to weaken NATO and dismantle the unipolar world order. While Trump-era U.S. policy prioritized China, Europeans view Russia’s actions in Ukraine as an existential threat to Eastern and Northern Europe, risking renewed continental division. Consequently, key EU nations—Germany, France, the UK, Netherlands, Poland, and Scandinavian states—are bolstering military, economic, and political ties with Ukraine to counter Russian influence.
Should the Ukraine war persist into a potential second Trump term, unresolved risks—coupled with the energy crisis—could deepen intra-European divisions. This might not only thwart the EU’s aspirations as a military power but also challenge its unity as a political and legal entity.
